Possible scenario
Controlled openness expands
20% Chance
The pace of AI-generated mathematical output pushes universities, journals, and funders to impose stronger verification and disclosure rules. The likely outcome is not a ban, but a more controlled publication pipeline for frontier AI-assisted results.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Business Services +0.2%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.