Possible scenario
Evasion Network Adapts
30% Chance
Iranian-linked shippers use renamed vessels, ship-to-ship transfers, altered AIS signals, and Chinese end-buyers to keep LPG exports moving. This outcome implies the blockade is porous, reducing near-term supply tightness rather than creating an immediate crisis.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Energy -0.4%
Tickers
- LPG-0.9%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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