Possible scenario
Split-Ticket Texas Realignment
20% Chance
Texas voters separate their views of individual candidates rather than producing a clean partisan wave. Paxton’s vulnerabilities, Abbott’s incumbency, and varying down-ballot name recognition lead to a mixed statewide result.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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