Possible scenario
Republican Late Recovery
32% Chance
The UT poll marks a high-water point for Democrats rather than a stable realignment. Republican turnout operations, conservative consolidation, and attacks on national Democrats pull most statewide races back toward the GOP by Election Day.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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