Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Materializes
38% Chance
The UT poll proves to be an early signal of a durable Democratic surge, driven by Hispanic voter movement, suburban erosion for Republicans, and weak favorability for Ken Paxton. Democrats remain ahead in most statewide contests through Election Day, ending decades of GOP dominance in Texas statewide offices.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Utilities +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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