Managed Iraqi Transition

The most likely path is that the U.S. exit remains largely orderly because it followed the 2024 timetable and the Baghdad airport headquarters handover two days earlier. Iraq absorbs base security and counterterrorism coordination through the Joint Operations Command, while the U.S. keeps over-the-horizon capabilities from Kuwait, Qatar, and naval assets.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.