Possible scenario
ISIS Resurgence Tests Iraq
24% Chance
A meaningful but not dominant risk is that ISIS exploits the optics and operational gap of the U.S. exit. The group is unlikely to retake major cities as in 2014, but it could raise attacks on rural checkpoints, power infrastructure, and oil-adjacent transport routes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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