Possible scenario
Iran-Aligned Leverage Grows
18% Chance
The U.S. departure could increase the influence of Iran-aligned factions inside Iraq’s security and political system. This does not necessarily produce immediate conflict, but it raises the risk of militia pressure on U.S. diplomatic sites, Iraqi banks, and energy projects tied to Western partners.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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