Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
45% Chance
Tokyo and Washington move quickly to prevent the arrest from becoming a broader alliance crisis. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly protests but keeps the response within established diplomatic channels, while U.S. Forces Japan pledges cooperation and tighter discipline.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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