Possible scenario
Security Backlash Expands
18% Chance
Some army units and former armed groups integrated after Assad's fall see the verdicts as a threat to their wartime immunity. Localized protests, defections, or retaliatory attacks increase the risk that the coastal insurgency reignites.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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