Possible scenario
AI-crypto VC thaw
42% Chance
Union Square Ventures' $900 million raise becomes a visible marker that institutional limited partners are again willing to back top-tier venture franchises after the liquidity drought. The most likely path is a selective thaw concentrated in AI infrastructure, developer tools, crypto rails, and fintech networks rather than a broad return to 2021-style funding conditions.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Finance +0.2%
Tickers
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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