Diplomacy Absorbs Dispute

The most likely outcome is that Qatar's allegation becomes part of the political record but does not derail the 2025 cease-fire architecture. Doha, Washington, Cairo, and Jerusalem have strong incentives to keep the remaining Gaza arrangements intact despite public recriminations over the first day of the war.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.