Possible scenario
Follow-On Testing
30% Chance
Pyongyang uses the successful first test to validate the submarine platform through additional launches and propaganda claims. This extends uncertainty but remains below the threshold of direct confrontation unless a missile trajectory threatens Japan or South Korea.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Technology -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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