Possible scenario
Armed Deterrent Standoff
38% Chance
The USS Theodore Roosevelt deployment restores a U.S. carrier presence without immediately entering the highest-risk waters near Iran. Washington emphasizes deterrence and air-defense coverage while avoiding direct strikes, and Iran continues harassment and missile signaling short of confirmed major hits.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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