Possible scenario
Yield Pressure Deepens
25% Chance
The selloff worsens if Treasury yields resume their climb and investors demand a higher discount rate for long-duration technology cash flows. This would turn the Nasdaq decline into a broader risk-off session, though still short of a crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.