Possible scenario
Orderly Tech Correction
40% Chance
The most likely path is a controlled de-risking in mega-cap technology after the rapid 10-day decline. Investors trim AI and long-duration growth exposure, but there is no immediate evidence of forced selling or systemic funding stress.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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