Possible scenario
Macro Relief Rally
20% Chance
A softer rates backdrop gives Bitcoin room to rebound as traders reassess the recent jump in Fed hike odds. If Treasury yields retreat from the 5.3% area, high-duration and speculative assets could recover from the liquidation-driven selloff.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Bitcoin Up
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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