Possible scenario
Deleveraging Continues
38% Chance
Bitcoin remains under pressure as forced selling continues after the break below $82,000. Elevated Treasury yields and higher Fed hike odds keep leveraged crypto positioning vulnerable, while ETF outflows reinforce the near-term risk-off tone.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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