Possible scenario
Succession Fight Intensifies
20% Chance
The early-exit possibility turns the ECB presidency into a more immediate political contest after Isabel Schnabel's departure and Marine Le Pen's stronger polling. Governments struggle to agree on whether the next president should come from France, Germany, or a smaller euro-area member state.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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