Possible scenario
Lagarde Stays Longer
26% Chance
Lagarde or ECB officials push back on speculation and frame any departure as technical rather than political. This outcome remains plausible because she has repeatedly emphasized serving into 2027 and may prefer to avoid linking the ECB to France's presidential campaign.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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