Possible scenario
IRGC Attribution Confirmed
40% Chance
U.S. Central Command and Gulf intelligence services attribute the latest tanker strikes to IRGC coastal batteries or drones. Washington responds with expanded escorts and limited suppression strikes, but Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to normal tanker traffic.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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