Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
20% Chance
The fresh strikes shock mediators into a narrower maritime safety deal focused on tanker passage rather than the full nuclear file. Iran seeks sequencing guarantees, while the U.S. presses for verified quiet before easing any sanctions enforcement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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