Possible scenario
Attribution Remains Ambiguous
25% Chance
Investigators cannot immediately prove whether the projectiles were fired by IRGC units, proxy forces, mines, or misidentified ordnance. The ambiguity slows escalation decisions, but commercial shipping remains largely halted because the risk to tankers is still immediate.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Consumer Services -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.