Possible scenario
Proceedings Continue Unchanged
30% Chance
The most institutionally likely outcome is that courts and prosecutors treat the letter as outside commentary rather than decisive evidence. The ICJ genocide case, ICC warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, and UN fact-finding efforts continue on separate legal tracks.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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