Possible scenario
Short-Term Smoothing
30% Chance
Markets treat the move as day-to-day exchange-rate management rather than a larger policy turn. The strong fix limits depreciation expectations, while the liquidity injection prevents money-market tightness, leaving most global assets little changed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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