Possible scenario
Rift Reopens
25% Chance
The White House effort fails to overcome Saudi-UAE competition over southern Yemen, ports, and local partner forces. Open military confrontation is avoided, but mistrust slows air-defense coordination and leaves the Houthis with room to exploit coalition divisions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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