Possible scenario
Project Moves Forward
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the UK approval survives near-term scrutiny and Shell resumes development work on Jackdaw. The government frames the decision as consistent with energy security while maintaining its broader limits on new North Sea licensing.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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