Possible scenario
Superseding Case Advances
45% Chance
Federal prosecutors in Manhattan file a superseding indictment adding torture and related conspiracy counts tied to detained Americans. The most likely path is procedural: Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody, the Justice Department folds the new allegations into the existing criminal case, and the June 2027 trial date becomes the next major milestone.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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