Possible scenario
Negotiated Legal Off-Ramp
20% Chance
The torture charges increase leverage for U.S. prosecutors and families of former detainees, but they also create incentives for a negotiated outcome. A deal could involve admissions, restitution, cooperation on remaining American detainees, or a broader diplomatic channel involving Caracas, Washington, and intermediaries such as Qatar.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Tickers
- CVX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.