Possible scenario
Condemnation Then Pause
45% Chance
North Korea treats the Hwasong-11Ma test as a signaling event rather than the start of a rapid launch cycle. The U.S., South Korea, and Japan issue coordinated condemnations and add limited surveillance activity, but markets largely absorb the event as another weapons-development milestone.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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