Possible scenario
Beijing Refuses
20% Chance
China refuses to release Chen and maintains that the case is a matter of national security. The refusal adds friction to the summit but does not by itself derail the broader bilateral agenda.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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