Possible scenario
US-Led Kinetic Response
27% Chance
Washington concludes that escorts and warnings are insufficient after repeated tanker hits and fresh mine-laying. A limited US-led strike campaign against IRGC Navy, radar, drone, and missile assets becomes a realistic next step, with high escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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