Possible scenario
Prolonged Hormuz Closure
38% Chance
Iran continues using mines, drones, and anti-ship missiles to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed despite US-led escorts. The most likely near-term path is a grinding maritime denial campaign rather than an immediate diplomatic reversal or full-scale regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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