Possible scenario
Negotiated Maritime Pause
20% Chance
Iran uses the tanker attacks and new mines to force urgent diplomacy rather than invite sustained US strikes. Oman, Qatar, and China have incentives to press for a temporary maritime pause that preserves Iranian leverage while preventing a wider war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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