Possible scenario
Backlash And Litigation
20% Chance
The settlement could face challenges from groups that view it as either too weak on race-neutral admissions or too aggressive toward campus speech and DEI activity. This scenario keeps UNC and federal civil-rights enforcement in the headlines, but the direct financial impact remains limited to legal and administrative costs.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.