Possible scenario
Regional Escalation Broadens
25% Chance
Iran chooses a more direct response, creating a dangerous cycle of retaliation involving Israel, U.S. forces, and regional proxies. This is less likely than contained conflict but remains plausible because the destruction of nuclear sites is a core strategic loss for Tehran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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