Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
25% Chance
After severe damage to nuclear infrastructure, Iran accepts indirect negotiations to avoid additional strikes and preserve remaining assets. Israel and the United States pause major kinetic operations while demanding IAEA access and limits on missile transfers to proxies.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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