Possible scenario
Contained Shadow Conflict
40% Chance
Iran retaliates through proxies, cyber operations, and limited missile or drone activity but avoids a direct state-on-state war with Israel or the United States. This is the most likely path because Tehran has incentives to show resolve while preserving regime survival and avoiding overwhelming U.S. military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
- Energy +1.1%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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