Possible scenario
Fresh Supply Escalation
28% Chance
A new attack, retaliation cycle, or shipping warning could quickly revive the risk premium that pushed Brent above $110. The market is particularly sensitive because recent shocks span the Persian Gulf, Saudi infrastructure, and Russian Baltic exports.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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