Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
18% Chance
Back-channel diplomacy or explicit U.S. messaging could reduce the perceived odds of near-term escalation with Iran. If Gulf shipping flows remain normal and OPEC+ does not signal further restraint, some of the geopolitical premium in Brent is likely to unwind.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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