Possible scenario
Regulatory Pressure Escalates
20% Chance
Law enforcement and sanctions authorities increase scrutiny of THORChain because the hack is suspected to involve North Korean actors. The near-term risk is not a full market crisis, but a sector-specific compliance shock for exchanges, bridges, and DeFi protocols.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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