Possible scenario
Crime Displacement Risk
20% Chance
The arrest wave disrupts some crews inside St. Louis but pushes activity into nearby counties or leaves a vacuum for rival groups. Federal agencies maintain pressure, yet the initial public-safety gain proves uneven.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- GEO+0.2%
- CXW+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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