Possible scenario
GOP Money Holds
31% Chance
Republicans retain a meaningful outside-spending advantage despite the stronger DCCC dues picture. The NRCC, Speaker Mike Johnson’s donor network, and Congressional Leadership Fund use earlier cash reserves to protect vulnerable incumbents and force Democrats to spend defensively.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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