Possible scenario
Temporary Price Spike
20% Chance
Investors conclude that the manufacturing-price jump is largely tied to temporary energy, electricity, and tariff-timing effects rather than a renewed inflation cycle. Risk assets stabilize as the market waits for employment and CPI confirmation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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