Possible scenario
Oversight Escalates
35% Chance
Congressional Republicans use the reported approval of real-time monitoring of Trump defense lawyers to intensify oversight of the Justice Department and FBI. The most likely path is subpoenas, document fights, and public hearings rather than immediate criminal consequences.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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