Possible scenario
Officials Face Exposure
20% Chance
The allegation could trigger formal reviews of senior Justice Department and FBI officials, especially if documents show approval of surveillance touching defense counsel. The consequences would likely be administrative or professional first, with criminal exposure requiring clearer evidence of intentional privilege violations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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