Possible scenario
Truce Talks Stall
40% Chance
Kyiv and Berlin keep arguing that an energy-only truce is too narrow because Russia can still attack ports, rail, gas infrastructure, and civilian logistics. Moscow has little incentive to accept broader limits while winter pressure on Ukraine remains a core military tool.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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