Possible scenario
Broader Deal Emerges
25% Chance
Washington revises the proposal after pushback from Zelenskyy and Merz, expanding it beyond electricity sites to include ports, gas infrastructure, and repair crews. A broader deal would be fragile but could create a short-lived diplomatic off-ramp before winter.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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