Possible scenario
Quiet Talks Continue
35% Chance
Trump's denial is used to avoid appearing to concede to Tehran while indirect contacts continue through Oman or Qatar. Both Washington and Tehran still have incentives to test a limited nuclear-for-sanctions formula without publicly owning it.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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