Possible scenario
Post-credit EV slump
25% Chance
Ford's collapse may be an early sign that the expiration of the federal EV tax credit pulled demand forward into Q3 2025 and left a weaker market behind. In this scenario, investors reassess U.S. EV growth assumptions across legacy automakers and newer EV manufacturers.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Tickers
- F-4.7%
- RIVN-3.0%
- GMM.USD-2.1%
- TSLA-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.